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November 14, 2025 India's Economy Poised for Robust Growth Amidst Global Shifts; Markets Brace for Volatility

Moody's Ratings has projected India's economy to be the fastest-growing among G20 nations, expanding at 6.5% through 2027, driven by strong domestic demand and successful export diversification, even in the face of US tariffs. Meanwhile, Indian markets are experiencing mixed signals, with a cautious outlook for Friday's trading session influenced by global trends and the awaited Bihar election results. The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) is also working on easing pre-IPO lock-in rules to make capital raising more flexible.

India's Economy Poised for Robust Growth Amidst Global Shifts; Markets Brace for Volatility

India's economy is set to demonstrate remarkable resilience and growth in the coming years, with Moody's Ratings forecasting a 6.5% expansion through 2027. This projection positions India as the fastest-growing economy among the G20 nations, a testament to its robust domestic demand, strategic export diversification, and a supportive monetary policy.

Economic Outlook and Export Resilience

According to Moody's Global Macro Outlook 2026-27 report, India is expected to weather potential turbulence from US tariffs, maintaining its growth trajectory at 6.4% in 2026 and 6.5% in 2027. Indian exporters have shown significant adaptability, successfully redirecting exports despite a 50% US tariff on some products. Overall exports climbed by 6.75% in September, even as shipments to the US saw an 11.9% drop. This strategic redirection underscores India's ability to navigate global trade challenges. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has contributed to this stability by holding its repo rate steady in October, reflecting a cautious yet growth-supportive monetary policy with subdued inflation.

To further bolster its export capabilities and counter the impact of US tariffs, India has initiated consultations with potential buyers from various countries, including Ghana, Rwanda, Uganda, Togo, Bahrain, Bhutan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. This "Plan B" aims to open new markets for goods from Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), which account for 45% of India's exports.

Market Dynamics and Regulatory Changes

On the domestic front, Indian stock markets are experiencing a period of volatility. Analysts suggest that the markets have been a "relative-return disaster" this year, with the rupee potentially having bottomed out after being a poor performer. The Nifty 50 and Sensex are anticipated to open lower on Friday, influenced by global market trends and the highly anticipated Bihar election results, which are seen as a significant sentimental cue for the market.

In a move to enhance capital raising flexibility, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has proposed easing the lock-in requirements for shares held by existing shareholders in upcoming public issues, excluding promoters and large shareholders. This regulatory adjustment is expected to make Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) more attractive and accessible for companies.

International Trade Fair

Further demonstrating India's commitment to global trade and economic engagement, the 44th India International Trade Fair commenced today at Bharat Mandapam. This 14-day event will host participants from twelve countries, including the UAE, China, Iran, South Korea, and Egypt, providing a crucial platform for domestic and international trade linkages.

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